by Steve Sternberg - Aug. 24, 2009 04:02 PM
The global flu Pandemic expected to return to the United States this fall is likely to infect as much as half the population, flooding hospitals with nearly 2 million patients and causing 30,000 to 90,000 deaths, according to the first official prediction of the scope of the coming epidemic.
The report, released Monday by the White House, was prepared by the President's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology beginning in late June at President Obama's request. It concludes that the expected resurgence of the new form of H1N1 FLU, also known as swine flu..... "Poses a serious health threat to the United States."
While this is not the 1918 flu pandemic, it infects younger people more and serious complications do occur," says the panel's co-chairman Eric Lander, director of the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, warning that infants and children, Pregnant Women
As of Aug. 15, swine flu has caused 7,983 hospitalizations and 522 deaths in the U.S., according to the U.S. Center for Disease Control Prvention
We think it's very likely cases will increase," says David Marens, a flu expert at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Unlike previous analyses, the White House science advisors drew from experience with past pandemics to attempt to forecast the impact of the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu and use the informnation to guide the nation's response to the epidemic. The report concludes that the coming flu season will more likely resemble the flu pandemic of 1957, which killed 70,000 people in the USA, or 1968, when 34,000 died. It is unlikely to have the tidal impact of the 1918 flu, which killed more than 500,000 people in the USA and more than 50 million people worldwide. About 36,000 people die annually in the U.S. from seasonal flu strain.
Marens says some features of the flu pandemic may help to blunt its impact, especially the fact that it appears to spare the elderly who usually die in the greatest numbers during flu pandemics.
Timing may help too, he says. "It came at a time of the year when influenza viruses have trouble getting traction. That bought us a lot of time to figure this out and make a vaccine. And as the virus has spread this summer it hasn't been so bad. These are good things. It doesn't necessarily mean we're out of the woods, but at least they're not bad news."
Public health experts have faced the dual challenge of preparing for two parallel flu epidemics ever since swine flu emerged in Mexico in April. The world's five vaccine makers rushed to finish the vaccine for seasonal flu, which is now being distributed, and to begin formulating a pandemic flu vaccine. The federal government has ordered 190 million doses; about 40 million are expected to be available by mid-October.
White House science advisors express concerns that, without significantly accelerating flu vaccine production, the first doses of vaccine may become available after the swine flu season peaks in October.( THATS A BIT LATE ) They also assert that the influx of patients may tie up hospital Emergency Rooms and intensive-care units (ICUs).
"It's possible that at a time of peak demand from 50 to 100 percent of ICU beds in an area might be used for influenza cases. They're often close to capacity without influenza," Lander says.
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On July 13, a World Health Organization (WHO) Global Alert headlined, "WHO recommendations on pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccinations" suggest that universally mandated ones are coming. It stated that on July 7, the pharmaceutical industry-dominated Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization held an "extraordinary meeting in Geneva to discuss issues and make recommendations related to vaccine for the pandemic (H1N1) 2009."
There's no pandemic nor until recently a single death anywhere attributable to Swine Flu. Yet WHO said the virus "is considered unstoppable," while admitting little evidence of spread so far, most cases are mild, and many people recover unaided. Nonetheless, all countries will need vaccines and should follow these priorities as initial supplies will be limited:
-- immunize health care workers "to protect the essential health care infrastructure;" the pregnant women; children over six months of age "with one of several chronic medical conditions;" healthy young adults aged 15 - 49; healthy children; healthy adults aged 50 - 64; and finally healthy adults aged 65 or older.
WTO suggested the risks in stating "new technologies are involved in the production of some pandemic vaccines, which have not yet been extensively evaluated for their safety in certain population groups..." As a result, "post-marketing surveillance" and "post-marketing safety and effectiveness studies" are essential so that countries can adjust their vaccination policies.
WHO "recommendations" are binding on all 194 member countries in case a pandemic emergency is declared under the 2005 International Health Regulations Act and April 2009 WHO pandemic plan.
It's crucial to understand that these vaccines are experimental, untested, toxic and extremely dangerous to the human immune system. They contain squalene-based adjuvants that cause a host of annoying to life-threatening autoimmune diseases. They must be avoided, even if mandated. It's also known that vaccines don't protect against diseases they're designed to prevent and often cause them. They should be banned but proliferate anyway because they're so profitable, and if globally mandated to the greatest extent ever.
Get ready because that's precisely what's coming - universal orders to risk toxic vaccine hazards. In the coming weeks, the dominant media globally will get into high gear fear-mongering mode to convince people voluntarily to submit to jeopardizing their health and well-being. It's essential to refuse and be safe and international law absolutely allows it.
Stephen Lendman is a Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization. He lives in Chicago and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to The Global Research News Hour on RepublicBroadcasting.org Monday - Friday at 10AM US Central time for cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on world and national issues. All programs are archived for easy listening.